![]() ![]() PLOS One found that Boston proper is now “about 4 degrees warmer on average in the spring than it was in the 1890s … due to a combination of global warming and the urban heat island effect associated with large cities.” With the caveat that Beantown’s spring weather can be all over the map in any given year, the researchers further found that if “Boston temperatures were to continue to warm by 4.5 degrees by the end of the century (a mid-range estimate for global warming), there will be a 64% chance that winning times will be slowed” due to the effects of heat on strenuous physical performance. Marathon Mondays are tracking warmer in Boston. ![]() In a 2017 study of the Massachusetts Climate Division (which includes Boston), the average maximum temperature was observed to have risen at a rate of 0.3 degrees per decade since 1897, the year of the first race - “more than double the temperature rise recorded for the contiguous United States as a whole (0.12 degrees per decade).” In the last 30 years, that warming has more than tripled, “ranging from 1.0 degree to 1.3 degrees per decade in the Boston area, depending on the exact start and end year you use to calculate the trend.” But Boston, which has had an average start temperature of 56 degrees over the past 22 years, is getting hotter. The ideal forecast for a marathon is overcast with a temperature ofĤ3.2 degrees Fahrenheit (or slightly colder for elites). “Some evidence indicates that the atmosphere may become more ‘wavy’” as the climate continues to warm “and thus these sorts of temperature swings could occur more often,” Adam Schlosser, a senior research scientist at the MIT Center for Global Change Science, told The Boston Globe last year. Future marathon forecasts in particular will be prone to more of the will-it-be-hot-or-cold? back and forth as the warm jet stream and cold Canadian air flip influence over New England in the spring. One of the most meteorologically unpredictable cities in the country and climate change is making reliable forecasts even harder. (The latest forecasts have since calmed down a bit.) Those would be two very different races and in addition to complicating packing, the uncertainty added another level of anxiety for runners who have nothing better to do than refresh the forecast during tapering. Depending on the timing of a weekend storm, runners have been told they will either face “the challenge of rain and gusty winds” on Monday - or, “if the storm front slows down … a very warm and humid day,” The weather reports leading up to the 2023 marathon, which takes place this coming Monday, have induced a lot of whiplash. So what’s it going to be this year? When the forecast was first announced on Saturday, it was all of the above. Or 2007, when runners had to face 30-mile-per-hour headwinds and sleet on a course abandoned by no-show volunteers. Or 2012, when 4,000 entrants opted to defer their race rather than run in the blazing 89-degree heat. Led more than half of the professional field to drop out. Take 2018, when torrential rain and temperatures in the 30s Which is why one bad window of weather can ruin The race - with a tightly competitive field of 30,000 participants, it’s the oldest and most iconic marathon in the world. And for amateur runners who don’t have an Olympic Games in their cards, Boston is Running a marathon is one of the most difficult and grueling challenges in sports athletes spend months logging hundreds of cumulative miles and dodging injuries in preparation for the big event. The reason? It’s when Boston Marathon Monday finally appears in the 10-day forecast. The second Saturday of April is the most important weather-related day on New England’s calendar, if not America’s. ![]()
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